A columnist writes: "Since the new mayor took office last year, reported burglaries in our city have dropped by twelve percent. Clearly, her public-safety policies are working."
Which is the main weakness in the columnist's reasoning?
Show answer & explanation
Answer: C
It relies on the opinion of a single expert instead of on data.: The argument does use data (a 12% drop); the problem is how that data is interpreted.
It attacks the character of the mayor's political opponents.: No opponents are mentioned, so the argument contains no personal attack.
It assumes that because one event followed another, the first caused it.: Correct. This is post hoc reasoning: other factors could explain the drop in burglaries.
It uses a percentage when the actual number of burglaries is needed.: A percentage is a legitimate way to describe change; it is not the main flaw.
Sequence is not causation. Before accepting "X happened, then Y, so X caused Y," look for other explanations.