A commodity chemical industry is running at 96% of capacity. Demand is forecast to grow 4% a year, and a new world-scale plant takes about three years to build. Industry capacity, ranked by cash cost, ends with a group of old, inefficient high-cost plants. Which pricing outcome is MOST likely over the next two years?
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Answer: D
Prices fall, because low-cost producers will add capacity quickly to capture the extra demand: New capacity takes about three years, so supply cannot respond within the two-year window.
Prices settle near the industry's average cash cost, because commodity prices reflect average cost: In a commodity market the price is set by the marginal (highest-cost) producer needed to meet demand, not by average cost.
Prices are set by the lowest-cost producer, so margins narrow for every producer in the industry: The lowest-cost producer does not set price when demand requires output from high-cost plants.
Prices rise toward or above the high-cost plants' cash cost, widening the low-cost producers' margins: Correct. Near full utilization, demand sits on the steep end of the industry supply (cost) curve, where the high-cost plants are the marginal suppliers. Price must at least cover their cash cost and can exceed it when capacity is short, so low-cost producers earn wide margins until new plants arrive.
Commodity prices are set by the marginal producer on the industry cost curve; high utilization plus long lead times for new capacity mean rising prices and margins.